Introduction
Futures Studies occupies a unique place in social science research today. Its disciplinary matrix invites decision makers to focus on future possibilities, not just present or past change. To study these possibilities, futurists consider change variables from various issues areas that affect organizations, whether economic, socio-cultural, technology, demographics or environmental change (Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006). Futures research therefore supports policy makers with useful information about the future, in view of instability, change and uncertainty (Kristóf, 2006).

Furthermore, futurists in public or private sectors share common methods, including environmental scanning research, trend analysis, the Delphi method, scenario planning, times series extrapolation, computer-modeling and systems-thinking. Some suggest that futures research has the potential to be uniquely transdisciplinary, as a social science that aims to solve real world problems (Balsiger, 2004; Klein, 2004).

Futures research, however, has also earned a reputation for grand thinking, in part due to the reputation of late 20th century social or technological forecasters, such as Herman Kahn, Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler, or John Naisbitt (Cornish, 2004). Yet academic futurists continually debate the viability of futures research, its philosophical constructs (Rescher, 1998) and its life in the academy (Bell, 2002; Marien, 2002). What then are the prospects for improving futures research?

In contrast to top-down grand-theory or bottom-up grounded-theory, this paper will argue that middle-range theoretical models are efficient tools to relate theory to data, to link concepts to each other, and to balance the abstract with the concrete to formulate hypotheses (Pinder & Moore, 1980). Drawing from a theory base of leadership, strategic management, organizational studies, and cognitive psychology, this paper will explore the use of middle-range theory to enhance the specificity and relevance of futures studies to organizations and societies.

This paper is organized in this manner: (a) an assessment of the hierarchy of futures knowledge and recommendation for reorganization, (b) the role of middle range theory to strength futures within this disciplinary tapestry, and (c) an observation as to why complexity doesn't invalidate the need for futures theory.

[end introduction; full paper awaits publication. If you are an academic futurist or PhD candidate, please contact me for the full paper to critique. Note: August 2007: I just presented this to the World Future Society, you can download and review the slides as a preview: http://www.jaygary.com/futuresresearch.pdf]

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