| Source: JayGary.com http://www.jaygary.com/peakfutures/measuring_foresight.shtml PeakFutures
A Review of Literature The ability to think forward, to foresee possible outcomes and to act accordingly, is a vital human trait (Hayward, 2003a). While numerous empirical studies in the area of future time perspective (FTP) have been undertaken among students (Husman & Lens, 1999), few studies have been done in organizational contexts (Seijts, 1998). Workplace studies that have been done have focused on individual workers (Richter, 2003) rather than general managers or chief executives, recognized as strategic leadership (Nachman & Shrivastava, 1989; Yukl, 2002). The leadership literature has consistently emphasized the importance of creating a shared vision (Bennis & Nanus, 1985; Senge, 1990; Kouzes & Posner 2002) and the strategy literature has viewed foresight as a core competence (Hamel & Prahalad 1994; Courtney, 2001). Yet few theoretical studies have considered how leaders, individually or collectively, cultivate a fluency with the future (Schultz, 1995), or tap into their deepest capacity to sense and shape the emerging future (Senge, Scharmer, Jaworski & Flowers, 2004). The problem facing organizational theorists is that there is no commonly accepted construct for researching foresight. This is despite gains made in futures studies over the past decade in identifying a knowledge base (Bell, 1996; Slaughter, 1999a). Before researchers can measure foresight, various theoretical questions would need to be answered, such as: 1. How does foresight correlate to other human capacities such as reasoning, thinking, learning, imagination, intuition, and creativity? 2. How does foresight relate to its antecedent, hindsight, and how is bias in both reduced? 3. How does foresight correlate with various learning theories, whether action research or experimental learning? 4. Beyond mental functions, how does foresight relate to well-known research in cognitive styles or personality types? 5. How does foresight relate to various lines of intellectual, moral, emotional or ego development? 6. How does foresight relate to organizational functions of strategic
leadership, including motivation, visioning, and goal setting, planning,
forecasting, and acting? To advance the development of a foresight model, this article reviews theoretical literature relating to the construct of strategic foresight (Marsh, McAllum & Purcell, 2002). Literature is drawn from academic journals, books, unpublished reports, and personal communications with academic colleagues. Theoretical studies from the fields of leadership, organizational, psychological and future studies are critically compared. Five sections define the order of this article. Literature is reviewed that a) defines foresight as a leadership behavior, b) enumerates the construct of foresight, c) accounts for the context of foresight, d) roots a foresight model in theory, and e) assesses existing foresight measures. The article concludes with research questions relevant to the construction of a foresight model. This study is significant in two ways. First, if there was a better understanding of foresight, then leadership could apply that to the art and practice of the Learning Organization (Senge, 1990). Second, a foresight model could contribute to "a postindustrial school of leadership" that would empower leaders to tackle the outstanding problems that the "industrial era was unwilling or unable to solve" (Rost, 1991, p. 182). Outline: [full paper is not available online] 1. Foresight in Leadership 2. The Construct of Foresight 3. The Context of Foresight 4. Theoretical Foundations of Foresight 5. Assessing Foresight Inventories 6. Conclusion © 1998-2008 by JayGary.comTop of Page |
