Source: JayGary.com
http://www.jaygary.com/foresight_phd_dissertation.shtml

Papers
Evaluation of a Foresight Measure
By Dr. Jay Gary, Jan 6, 2009

This study examined whether there is sufficient theoretical and empirical support for Dian's six personal styles of foresight, identified as Futurist, Activist, Opportunist, Flexist, Equilibrist, and Reactionist. Support was examined from both the diffusion of innovations and temporal perspective literature.

This quantitative study examined Dian's  Foresight Styles Assessment (FSA) through factor analysis using orthogonal rotation from a development sample of 3,154 knowledge workers. Principal components analysis resulted in a four factor solution of empirical factors that explained 41.72% of the variance with scale reliability ranging from .66 to .89. Based upon results, the shortened FSA is a valid and reliable instrument with construct validity. Its usefulness, limitations, and future development are discussed in the context of developing a leadership theory of strategic foresight.

This dissertation was not filed in Dissertation Abstracts.


Update: November 3, 2009

The Journal of Futures Studies from Tamkang University Press has just published the quantitative results of this study (not its review of literature). See:

Gary, J. E. (2009, August). Foresight Styles Assessment: Testing a new tool for consulting futurists. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(1), 1-26. http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/14-1/A01.pdf

So what is the bottom line on the FSA? My independent quantitative study could be compared to a consumer protection study. An agency is tasked to protect the public from unreasonable risks in using a new baby monitor. Tests are performed. Findings are confirmed. The agency then reports to the public whether the product is safe or whether it should be recalled.

My study found Dian's Foresight Style Assessment transmits a baby's cry, but a sharper signal could be provided if the instrument was further calibrated.

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